课程大纲：
一、供应链管理基础——需求管理 The Essential of Supply Chain Management
1. 供应链管理的基本概念与供应链管理战略 The basic of SCM
2. 新形势下企业面临的供应链挑战与需求预测的难点 The challenges of SCM in the new era.
3. 需求管理的要素与模式 The elements and patterns of demand management
4. 需求计划职能的重要性 The importance of demand planner
二、预测的基础与形态
1. 预测的分类 The classification of forecast,
2. 定性预测介绍：德尔菲法、主观概率法 Qualitative Forecasting: Judgmental forecasts: Delphi, Subjective probability method
3. 预测基础Basic of Forecasting：
4. 预测的几种基础形态及如何判定 Time series data patterns
5. 定量预测介绍 Quantitative Forecasting
三、预测技术与模型介绍
1. 定量预测模型：移动平均, 指数平滑 Moving average, Exponential smoothing,
2. 课程练习：利用EXCEL分析工具进行预测：移动平均、指数平滑 Practice and Exercise: EXCEL skills for Forecast modeling: MA & ES
3. 线性回归分析 Linear Regression
4. 课程练习：利用EXCEL分析工具进行预测：线性回归分析 Practice and Exercise: EXCEL skills for Forecast modeling: Linear Regression
5. 案例分析 Case study
四、预测技术与模型介绍（续）
1. 预测的季节性指数评估及计算方法 Time series with seasonal index and how to evaluate it
2. 其他高级与复杂模型介绍 Other advanced forecast models.
3. 课程练习：利用EXCEL分析工具进行预测：季节性分析 Practice and Exercise: EXCEL skills for Forecast modeling: Seasonal indicator evaluation and calculation methods
4. 案例分析 Case study
5. 预测模型的总结与要点 The summary of forecast models
6. 不同预测的实际应用场景 The forecast technology applications for different business purpose
五、预测准确率评估
1. 预测准确率评估标准公式介绍 Forecast accuracy introduction
2. 预测准确率分析 Forecast accuracy analysis
3. 追踪客户预测的准确率，以做出持续改进
4. 课程练习：利用EXCEL进行预测准确率分析Practice and Exercise: EXCEL skills for Forecast accuracy analysis
六、预测制定流程 Demand Forecasting Management Process
1. 如何做数据清洗 Data cleansing
2. 基准预测与统计预测技术的结合 The combination of Baseline forecasting with data cleansing
3. 新品预测与计划 New product forecast and demand plan
4. 促销预测与计划 Promotion forecast and demand plan
5. 电商渠道预测与计划 E-commerce channel forecast and plan
6. 下市管理 Product off-market management
7. 经销商预测与库存管理 Dealer forecasting and inventory management
七、需求计划与产销协同流程 Demand Planning vs S&OP Process
1. DP角色在产销协同预测会议的职责 DP role in S&OP process
八、库存与库存补货策略Inventory Management and Replenishment Strategies (根据时间选定)
1. 安全库存策略 Safety Stock and inventory strategy
2. 安全库存模型与补货模型 Safety Stock Modeling and Replenishment
九、课程总结Summary
